What You Need To Know About The 2026 US Midterm Elections

By Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON, October 21 - (This Oct. 19 story has been corrected to say 36 governors, not 39, in paragraph 25.)

Early voting has been underway for weeks ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, when US voters will elect members of the House of Representatives and Senate and governors in states across the country.

Held in the middle of each four-year presidential term, the midterms by definition do not involve the president. But for anyone who thinks they lack drama or importance this ‌year, consider these two statistics:

More than 100 million people likely will cast ballots in this year’s midterm voting, if turnout is anything like the previous midterm in 2022; and as of October 12, a record $3.8 billion had been spent on political advertisements that have been aired so far.

Top spending is in battleground US Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan, according to AdImpact, which tracks the activities.Still, midterms generally attract fewer voters than the higher-profile presidential races. More than 155 million votes were cast in the 2024 presidential election, for example.

CONTROL OF CONGRESS AT STAKE

Plenty is at stake in this midterm election as Democrats try to win majority control of the US Congress. Currently, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House, where there are two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans. Democrats must win a net gain of four seats to win control.

Democrats also are fighting to win the Senate, where Republicans ⁠hold a 53-47 majority. They must net four additional seats to get control. Ten races, including those in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, could decide the outcome.

CAN MIDTERMS AFFECT THE PRESIDENCY?

Midterm elections generally are dangerous territory for the political party that holds the White House and/or Congress. For 2026 that means that President Donald Trump and his Republicans controlling the US Senate and House of Representatives are in perilous political positions.

The midterms can be an opportunity for voters to, in effect, grade the president’s performance, and possibly trigger White House course corrections if they receive low marks. Midterm election results also can give aspiring presidential candidates hints on how to tailor their messages to voters in the next presidential campaign, which in this case will be in 2028.

WHAT ARE POLLS SHOWING?

Approval of Trump’s performance is at an all-time low of 32%, according to a September Reuters/Ipsos poll. Domestic issues like rising consumer prices are likely to have an impact on the outcome of many races and could erode support for Republicans.

At the same time, there is evidence that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans. If early voting trends continue it could point to a Democratic win in November. There are also signs that Latino voters who veered to Trump in 2024 might be returning to Democrats because of frustration over the economy and some of Trump’s immigration enforcement tactics.

However, a landslide for the Democrats is far from assured. Republicans could benefit from continued skepticism towards Democrats, a Republican spending advantage on campaigns, and fears from moderate voters over some primary wins by left-wingers.

RECENT MIDTERM HISTORY

Recent history tells the story of the shockwaves a midterm election can ‌produce.

In the 2010 ⁠midterms, during the Democratic presidency of Barack Obama, Republicans scored major victories, winning 63 additional House seats amid an underperforming US economy and weak support for Obama’s landmark healthcare reform legislation.

Democrats lost their majority. In the Senate, they held onto control despite losing six seats.

The Republican wave was a “shellacking,” Obama lamented at the time. He subsequently faced Republican demands for significant reductions to non-defense spending.

Democrats returned the favor in 2018, with Trump in the White House. They gained a net total of 40 House seats, but lost a net two Senate seats.

This year’s elections also have races for governors in 36 of the 50 states and voting in nearly every state for seats in their state-level legislative bodies.

Currently, Republicans control 55% of state legislative seats across the country, while Democrats hold 43.8%, according to Ballotpedia.

(Courtesy: https://www.reuters.com/)